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I bought into the market hype for Visa and got burnt!  

Over the last week or so Visa (V) stock has been on steady run up from about $60 to $90 – until the last 2 days of this week when it lost 7% of its value. I had bought some stock when it was $64 (just after the IPO) and was looking to buy some more based on how the stock performed. It off course performed very well and kept on going up. I kept on waiting for a pullback, but it never came. Finally I got tired of watching the relentless run-up and decided that the uptrend was going to continue – spurred by what I was reading and hearing in the media – and decided to buy some Sep $95 call options. This gives me the right to buy the stock at $95 before the options expire in September. I decided to buy options rather than the actual stock as they provided more upside potential for a smaller investment (each option gives you exposure to 100 shares) – but as I found out the converse is just as true.

I undertook the call options trade on Wednesday this week when the stock was about $90, and I thought that in about five months (the duration of the option) the stock should rise well above $100 thereby making some decent money on the options. But I felt like a true sucker when the share price proceeded to drop over then next two days from about $90 to $83. As I found out option prices magnify both the gains AND losses, so the call option contracts I bought at $8.20, fell to $6.30 – a loss of almost 25% in 2 days!

The options still have a while to run and I do believe in the Visa story over the medium term, so rather than "panic" I will hold on for a bit longer before selling. One of the lessons from all this is not to buy into the market hype, especially using options. The more talked about a stock is in the media; the more chance it has reached its top and is about to have a pullback. Hopefully this story will have a happy ending with the stock getting back to a level where I can break even or even sell the options for a profit. Fingers crossed.



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7 comments

  • Sarah  
    May 11, 2008 5:09 PM
    This post has been removed by the author.
  • Sarah  
    May 11, 2008 5:12 PM

    Hold on to your options. Visa should keep going up, espically once it is included in the indexes, meaning that all the big index/mutual funds will have to buy it.

  • investmentplayground  
    May 13, 2008 9:41 AM

    Holding on for long term is obviously a safe bet. Investing long term is the key to limiting risk and building wealth. I would never have bought Visa, however, given it being at its 52 week highs. Investing in undervalued companies is a much better investment motto - in my opinion.

    Great blog by the way.

  • Andy  
    May 13, 2008 11:27 PM

    Sarah - Thanks for your comment. I will hold on to the options for a bit longer but their value is also dependent on the time to expiry (in addition to the underlying share price) so will have to make a decision next month.

    Investment playground - The stock kepy hitting 52 week highs every other day and I got caught in the hype. Investing 101 mistake. Still I think I may get out of this trade okay. I need to find some good undervalued companies - any suggestions?

    Checked out your blog as well, which I liked. Some investment ideas there.

  • Frank Zen  
    June 4, 2008 5:27 PM

    You'll do fine on Visa. It'll be back up. I just cashed in Jan 2010 100 calls for Jan 2010 160 calls and pocketed the difference.

    I don't think it was an unreasonable buy. But I prefer to buy further out expiration dates and a little further out of the money.

  • Andy  
    June 5, 2008 8:52 AM

    Thanks Frank. though with recent turmoil the financial markets, I am a bit concerned that my Visa sep 95 calls will never get into the money.

  • David  
    July 23, 2008 9:57 AM

    It sure doesn't look like it'll be in the money before Sep. . . They did however just come out with favorable earnings. That's good! Unfortunately for you (and me) it was only a few pennies per share different from analysts estimates.

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