[Updated Oct 2009] “The world is changing, and the dollar is losing its status. If you have a 5- year or 10-year view about the dollar, it should be for a weaker currency.”

Worrying comments indeed if most of your investments are in the US and linked to the strength of the greenback. Following a loose monetary policy strategy (i.e. a low interest rate environment) foreign central bankers are acting on threats to dump the dollar in favor of the Euro and Yen. This is adding further further pressure on the greenback after its biggest two-quarter rout in almost two decades and signals that the currency won’t rebound anytime soon after losing 10.3 percent on a trade-weighted basis the past six months, the biggest drop since 1991.

Foreign Policy makers boosted foreign currency holdings by $413 billion last quarter, the most since at least 2003, to $7.3 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Nations reporting currency breakdowns put 63 percent of the new cash into euros and yen in April, May and June, the latest Barclays Capital data show. That’s the highest percentage in any quarter with more than an $80 billion increase.

The dollar’s 37 percent share of new reserves fell from about a 63 percent average since 1999. America’s currency has been under siege as the Treasury sells a record amount of debt to finance a budget deficit that totaled $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2009 ended Sept. 30. Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s Dollar Index, which tracks the currency’s performance against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona, fell to 75.77 last week, the lowest level since August 2008 and down from the high this year of 89.624 on March 4. The index, at 76.104 today, is within six points of its record low reached in March 2008.

“The diversification out of the dollar will accelerate,” said Fabrizio Fiorini, a money manager who helps oversee $12 billion at Aletti Gestielle SGR SpA in Milan. “People are buying the euro not because they want that currency, but because they want to get rid of the dollar. In the long run, the U.S. will not be the same powerful country that it once was.”

However supporters of the US dollar say that Central banks’ moves away from the dollar are a temporary trend that will reverse once the Fed starts raising interest rates from near zero, according to Christoph Kind, who helps manage $20 billion as head of asset allocation at Frankfurt Trust in Germany. “The world is currently flush with the U.S. dollar, which is available at no cost,” Kind said. “If there’s a turnaround in U.S. monetary policy, there will be a change of perception about the dollar as a reserve currency. The diversification has more to do with reduction of concentration risks rather than a dim view of the U.S. or its currency.”

Sentiment toward the dollar reminds John Taylor, chairman of New York-based FX Concepts Inc., the world’s largest currency hedge fund, of the mid-1990s. That’s when the greenback tumbled to a post-World War II low of 79.75 against the yen on April 19, 1995, on concern that the Fed wasn’t raising rates fast enough to contain inflation. Like now, speculation about central bank diversification and the demise of the dollar’s primacy rose. The currency then gained 26 percent versus the yen and 25 percent against the deutsche mark in the following two years as technology innovation increased U.S. productivity and attracted foreign capital.

“People didn’t like the dollar in 1995,” said Taylor, whose firm has $9 billion under management. “That was very stupid and turned out to be wrong. Now, we are getting to the point that people’s attitude toward the dollar becomes ridiculously negative.”

Dollar Forecasts : The median estimate of more than 40 economists and strategists is for the dollar to end the year little changed at $1.47 per euro, and appreciate to 92 yen, from 89.97 today.

The growth of global reserves is accelerating, with Taiwan’s and South Korea’s, the fifth- and sixth-largest in the world, rising 2.1 percent to $332.2 billion and 3.6 percent to $254.3 billion in September, the fastest since May. The four biggest pools of reserves are held by China, Japan, Russia and India.

China, which controlled $2.1 trillion in foreign reserves as of June 30 and owns $800 billion of U.S. debt, is among the countries that don’t report allocations. “Unless you think China does things significantly differently from others,” the anti-dollar trend is unmistakable, Englander said.

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[Updated Sep 2009] US Dollar on the Ropes? It looks like the bears are out in force again when it comes to the US dollar with many saying that a global economic recovery, huge deficits and loss of status as the world's reserve currency spell doom and gloom for the once mighty greenback. This is reflected in the Dollar Index (DXY) which was below 80c. It has fallen 12 percent from this year’s high in March as U.S. authorities pledged $12.8 trillion to combat the recession. A recent bloomberg piece looked at what some of the leading money managers are saying about the prospects of the US dollar in the years ahead and unfortunately it was hard to find much good news to support dollar strength in the medium to longer term.

PIMCO, the world’s biggest manager of bond funds, said the dollar will weaken as the U.S. pumps “massive” amounts of money into the economy [in response to the financial and housing crisis]. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a report on the company’s Web site. The greenback is losing its status as the world’s reserve currency, he said. “Investors should consider whether it makes sense to take advantage of any periods of U.S. dollar strength to diversify their currency exposure.” Bill Gross, who runs the $169 billion Pimco Total Return Fund, is also warning the U.S. currency will fall.

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Per the previous update below, China, the world’s largest holder of foreign-currency reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev last month ratified his call for a supranational currency by producing a sample coin after a summit of the Group of Eight nations. While there is still a way to go before this ever happens, the rumblings for a non-US based reserve currency are getting stronger by the week with the dollar as a percentage of global central banks’ foreign reserves falling to 65% from 73% in a few years, according to the International Monetary Fund. Asian currencies stand to benefit as the region’s economy grows and the dollar’s allure fades, said Rajeev de Mello, Singapore-based head of Asian investments at Western Asset Management Co., which oversees $473.4 billion. “We are positive on the Asian currencies against the dollar and think they will continue to rally,” de Mello said in an interview. “I do think the diversification of reserves is something that’s important and I think we’ll see some from China into other currencies and this will benefit as well Asian currencies and other emerging currencies.”

The U.S. government boosted spending and the Federal Reserve bought bonds to revive credit markets that seized up after financial companies posted $1.6 trillion in writedowns and losses, raising concern there is an oversupply of greenbacks. The U.S. budget deficit reached a record $1.27 trillion for the first 10 months of the fiscal year and broke a monthly high for July. Famed investor Jim Rogers, who said last year that he was shifting all his assets out of dollars and buying Chinese yuan because the Fed eroded the value of the U.S. currency. This feeling is backed by a number of money mangers who are advising clients to diversify out of the US dollars before central banks and sovereign wealth funds do the same because of concern government budget deficits will deepen, Gross said in June.

Billionaire Warren Buffett wrote in a New York Times commentary today that the dollar is under threat from the “monetary medicine” that has been pumped into the financial system. Enormous dosages of monetary medicine continue to be administered and, before long, we will need to deal with their side effects,” Buffett, 78, wrote. The “greenback emissions” will swell the deficit to 13 percent of gross domestic product this fiscal year, while net debt will increase to 56 percent of GDP, he said.

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[Update August 2009] It looks the rest of the world is getting tired of using the once mighty Greenback as it's reserve currency. Recent reports show that China and other emerging super powers have started seriously calling for the creation of a new global currency to eventually replace the US dollar. China, the largest foreign holder of US debt ($2 Trillion), is behind the current push for moving away from the global fiat currency because of frustration at their financial dependence on the U.S., with Premier Wen Jiabao this month publicly expressing "worries" over China's significant holdings of U.S. government bonds. President Obama was forced to publicly assure the Chinese that all is well. Because other nations continued to park their money in U.S. dollars, the argument goes, the Federal Reserve was able to pursue an irresponsible policy in recent years, keeping interest rates too low for too long and thereby helping to inflate a bubble in the housing market.

The appreciation of the dollar over the last few months was primarily due to a perceived flight to safety in US treasuries, which foreign investors and governments bought as other asset classes became more risky. However with all the trillions in stimulus spending, bank bailouts and other fiscal policy measures many are now questioning the impacts on the future value of the US dollar. In an ironic twist, should the local and global economy start to show signs of real improvement, the US dollar will most likely plummet as the "safety" trade unwinds. Case in point, as the stock market jumped 20% over the last 2 weeks on possible signs of a recovery, the dollar index (DXY), a measure of the greenback strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, dropped by over 10%.

There is not much do in the short term - the US dollar/debt is the only game in town for now, with few alternatives other than gold. But longer term and if you are mainly an equity investor you need to factor in that the fall of the US dollar is more likely than not. Unfortunately, the lower US dollar will also drive inflation domestically and reduce our consumer and corporate purchasing power. No one knows currency movements for sure, but your best bet is to ensure you have significant international diversification in your retirement and trading portfolio's.

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[Previous update] For most people the direction of the US dollar should matter. Whether the impact is direct (value of foreign holdings) or indirect (oil prices) it is important to understand where the US dollar is headed because of its effect on you. For me in particular it is important as I work/live in the US, travel overseas and have a significant part of my investment portfolio abroad.

Unfortunately over the last few years the dollar has been on a downward trend with little upward respite. The Dollar Index traded on ICE futures in New York, which tracks the dollar against currencies of our six largest trading partners has fallen over 15% in the past year. So is this down trend going to continue or will the dollar finally stand up and regain some of its lost value?

Before looking at the outlook for the US dollar, it is important to understand the key forces that drive currency movements.

Forces behind the dollar

Budget Deficit and Large import/export imbalance – The US runs a large budget deficit meaning that the value of our imports far exceeds that of our exports. To fund this deficit we need to continually sell US dollars to buy foreign currencies or repay debt. The increase in supply of US dollars to achieve this leads to a devaluation the currency. So as the deficit grows the dollar continues to weaken. A country like China on the other hand, exports significantly more than it imports. As a result, China will build up massive amounts of US dollars and US debt in its reserves (budget surplus) and will eventually sell dollars and buy other things (Euros, oil, gold) in order to diversify and get higher returns. As they sell their dollar holdings the US currency declines. Another factor driving the deficit is the tremendous cost to fund the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and other places. As the country spends billions of dollars to maintain an overseas presence, we keep adding to our national debt and budget deficit.

Interest Rates and Economy– The fed has been aggressively lowering interest rates (and increasing the money supply) to keep the economy afloat after the sub prime and credit crisis. However the consequence of low interest rates and a faltering economy is that the US becomes much less attractive to foreign investors who can get larger risk free returns by putting money in higher interest rate counties like Australia and New Zealand (official interest rates there are around 7.5% compared to 3% here in the US). Lack of foreign investment in the US reduces demand for the dollar and results in the currency depreciating. This factor is probably the most influential in currency movements.

Speculation – This is when speculators bet that the economy, interest rate or other factors are going to continue to drive the US economy and currency down. This added pressure sets negative expectations and acts as an added (albeit unreal) force to keep the dollar down.

There are both benefits and drawbacks to a low US dollar. Our exporters become more competitive on a global level, companies overseas earnings are higher in US dollar terms and it helps the tourism industry. However we are currently being impacted much more by the negative effects of the lower dollar which has resulted in higher oil and commodity prices; and the continued erosion of the relative wealth of US residents in global terms. Worst of all it drives inflation as the cost of imported goods becomes more expensive.

See an updated article on the US dollar outlook here : US dollar update, outlook and opinions

What the experts are saying

Most experts are predicting the US dollar to stabilize over the medium term, but due to the above factors don't see any meaningful improvement in the near future. Here are some opinions from various sources:

Inflation is rising throughout the world due to dollar weakness, and the prices of such commodities as oil and corn have soared. The dollar has fallen 25% since 2002, and nearly 8% against the euro so far this year. As former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker noted last week, we are already in a "dollar crisis." Even the International Monetary Fund – typically the temple of devaluationists – is alarmed by the dollar's fall.

``The dollar has been coming under pressure versus the euro lately, which could be the start of a new trend,'' said Neil Mellor, a currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. in London. ``The euro is being buoyed by the continued hawkishness of the European Central Bank.'' (Bloomberg.com)

"Look for the U.S. dollar to head toward its low against the euro this week if rising crude-oil prices fuel more concerns of a general rise in U.S. inflation. Inflation, always a gauge of a currency's value, has become an even bigger factor in foreign-exchange markets as investors fret over soaring oil prices and the implications beyond the cost
of gasoline." (Wsj.com)

"As the dollar's fortunes have become increasingly tied to inflation concerns...a firm break to the downside in oil prices will be needed to help the dollar find the momentum to strengthen," said Manuel Oliveri, a currency strategist at UBS.

There is a scenario in which a spike in U.S. inflation could help the dollar. Prices could rise so dramatically that the U.S. Federal Reserve would feel the need to shift its focus away from cutting interest rates to boost the economy and would instead put its attention on fighting inflation. Any signs of such a shift would lead to expectations that the Fed might start raising interest rates. Such expectations could boost returns on dollar-based investments, which would bring many investors back to the dollar. (Wsj.com)

"The dollar will keep sliding amid the slowing U.S. economy,'' said Michiyoshi Kato, a senior vice president of currency sales in Tokyo at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. "Weaker data will force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates further.'' We expect the dollar to remain under selling pressure as market participants' optimism over a notable upturn in economic activity gradually fades,'' wrote Derek Halpenny, head of currency research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in London

"The Fed is telling us to not think in terms of easing [lowering interest rates],'' said Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets. "That is the most important feature behind the dollar comeback....''

In conclusion and my opinion

From my research and reading the outlook for the dollar looks quite bleak over the next year due to various economic pressures. However as the economy starts recovering and the federal reserve starts tightening monetary policy (raising interest rates) the US dollar will start appreciating. This should start happening towards the end of this year and my view is that by the end of 2009 the dollar should be up 15-25% from current levels. As the US dollar, or greenback as it is called, recovers along with the economy we should see lower inflation and higher house prices. Best of all, oil and gas prices should start to fall as well.

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