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$150 Oil! Buy Oil or Short Oil - this is the ETF to use  

As a consumer I am constantly feeling the pain of rising oil prices whenever I fill gas in my car. As an investor though, I regret missing out on the run up in companies that benefited from higher oil prices. It seems that apart from energy related stocks all other equities are generally heading south. Despite ongoing volatility, oil prices don't look like they are going down anytime soon. As I currently have no investments in oil sector or related companies and don't want to miss out on further potential gains, I had decided to do some research around good oil related investing options.

After researching and reading about various oil and related services companies I was still not sure which stocks should I invest in. A number of companies look good, but are they too over priced or risky? So rather than pick a specific "hot" company like some of my recent forays, I decided to take a less risky and more diversified approach by investing in an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that I recently read about. It could also provide a good way to use put options on the ETF in the expectation that oil prices will fall - though I don't recommend this unless you are comfortable with options.The ETF I am talking about is the Global Energy iShare (IXC).

Bullish analysts and oil veterans say that oil only has one way to go and that is up - "We are now deep into a monster, generational bull market for energy. This is making recent manias -- like the dot coms and real estate -- look like very small beer. The fundamentals are strong. And ordinary people simply must be on board" said a recent WSJ
article which was painting a very bullish case for IXC. The author goes on to say "Just buy a small stake in this diversified energy fund, and then keep adding to your position steadily and in small amounts. You won't buy at the bottom -- but you'll avoid buying at the top. This boom, like all others, will see plenty of bumps along the road. But the direction we're taking is pretty obvious"

I will look to take a small position in the IXC ETF in the coming days. However, I also believe that oil is headed for a minor correction so am not rushing in to buy and can afford to wait for a good entry point.

I do believe that in the long term oil and subsequently gas prices will almost certainly rise. The supply and demand fundamentals are too strong and people cannot change their driving habits overnight. Even at $5 gas, people will still drive almost as much as they do now. Oil demand is inelastic and you don't want to miss out on this trend. Rather than place all your bets on one or two stocks, diversify your risk and choose this or another similar ETF.

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5 comments

  • Curt  
    June 20, 2008 11:06 AM

    Oil may not gain much more this year, but it will probably get to $200 in the next few years. Yes, invest in oil. Maybe $250, but the destruction of the economy will cut back on demand at that price, so I don't think it will much higher than that.

    If China raises there currency against the dollar, than oil will be cheaper for billions of people in China, which will probably increase their demand - pushing prices higher for us and our weak dollar.

  • pfstock  
    June 20, 2008 1:08 PM

    Wrong! IXC is NOT the ETF that most closely tracks the price of crude oil. That would be either USO or OIL. IXC is a global energy fund that tracks companies (such as Exxon, BP, Chevron, etc.) that are in the oil sector. If you invested in IXC a year ago, you'd be up about 20% for the year.

    By contrast, USO and OIL track the underlying crude oil price. If you had invested in these, you would be up over 100% in the past year! So choose your ETFs carefully...

    Now, I should add my standard disclaimer that although I mention a particular investment does not necessarily mean that I think it will go up in value. Invest at your own risk.

  • Andy  
    June 24, 2008 1:00 PM

    Curt - Thanks for your comment and agree with your views. I just want to make sure I have some exposure to oil as I think medium term it will be one of the few sectors to provide a positive return.

    pfstock - You are correct. IXC invests in Oil companies. I think these are better, less volatile and safer over the medium term than directly investing in Oil. For direct exposure USO and OIL are better and I am looking at them also down the line. Your disclaimer is a great point for all folks reading investment related blogs.

  • hypermilers  
    December 3, 2008 8:17 PM

    This is a very terrible news.. may be sooner or later we will lack of production of fuel i just hope that people would create other technology. to conserve it

  • dc sports exhaust  
    February 20, 2009 1:48 AM

    Good thing the prices of oil aren't as high nowadays as compared to last year. I am just not sure, how long the trend will be. It's too hard to say.

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