Economic Recovery Advisory Board (ERAB) - Brilliant or more Bureaucracy
In a continuing revelation of the economic team(s) to support his administration and its policy development, President-Elect Obama announced the formation of a new panel called the Economic Recovery Advisory Board (ERAB). The board's mission will be to give President-Elect Obama and his administration expert "outsider" policy advice on lifting the nation out of the current recession and stabilize financial markets. It is designed to provide an alternative information source outside the normal government (bureaucratic) channels. The ERAB is modeled on the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board established by then-President Dwight Eisenhower in 1956, at the height of the Cold War, when officials worried that the existing bureaucratic structure was inadequate to help the U.S. keep pace with Communist regimes. The financial crisis has drawn similar concern that the government isn't properly organized to monitor and respond to modern financial markets.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker will be the chairman of this new board, with economist Austan Goolsbee appointed as the staff director. Goolsbee is also a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. Other members of the ERAB will be drawn from a cross-section of citizens outside the government, chosen for their independence, representation and expertise. The EARB's findings will be used as direct input into the Obama administration's policy setting.
Personally, I think this is a brilliant move by Obama because he is leveraging much need non-government expertise. Elected officials are not really experienced economists and as the past year has shown, they are quite ill-equipped to handle the scale and speed of the financial crisis that has unfolded. It will also give President-Elect Obama a head start on his first day in office, where he will have workable ideas to base his economic recovery policies and solutions on, thanks to the input of experts across a number of business areas.
My only hope is that the ERAB does not become a political machine where the members are hired for their backing of Obama and his campaign policies, rather than for their expertise, independence and thinking. While I agree in the main with Obama's economic recovery policies based around fiscal stimulus', I think this crisis needs a new perspective and willingness to change course in a thoughtful way (against a set framework) as events unfold. The current crisis may rival the scale of the great depression, but the world is a different place now and solutions that worked then will not necessarily work now.
What are your thoughts? Do you think the ERAB will provide meaningful input or just become another Washington think thank, with little in way of practical ideas and solutions.
As a minor aside, it was interesting to see a headline on MSNBC today saying, "President-Elect Obama unveils further plans to combat the economic crisis, while President Bush pardons a turkey". I know both were pre-scheduled events that just happened to be at same time, but it seems to sum up the way things are perceived. Obama is already acting in a presidential manner, while Bush has checked out. The transition has already happened.
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November 26, 2008 5:09 PM
Just more bureaucracy. There are so many economic advisors and hangers on in the Executive Branch now, you would spend a day just counting them all: OMB, CEA, Treasury, Commerce, on and on, plus the Fed. This is a political move so that Obama can say he is just taking advice from this new board. He needs to find a competent economic advisor he trusts and go with it, not expand the noise.
November 26, 2008 6:53 PM
What is wrong with giving the American household a check for $13,000? The $13,000 would do much better in the people’s hands. The $13,000 is less than the government is spending on the original bailout and the new proposed $800 billion. If an economic advisory board cannot put the people before their selfish reasons something is very wrong. If the people had the money they would spend it and then jobs would be added, manufacturing would grow, and last but not least the states would gain money in the form of sales taxes not to mention the added income taxes from the extra workers.
http://nomedals.blogspot.com
November 26, 2008 7:52 PM
Well. One thing: is it me or is "change" starting to look like the 1980s-90s?
But I think more and more we have to take investment and innovation matters into our own hands. The government can spend money, not make it.
November 27, 2008 11:10 AM
This is a political move so that Obama can say he is just taking advice from this new board. He needs to find a competent economic advisor he trusts and go with it, not expand the noise.
I think this board will be a rotating door, as people will be coming and going.
November 27, 2008 3:14 PM
TML - That could be the case, but I am going to wait to see who is appointed to the board. I think this is a positive move overall, because it at least acknowledges that the government does not have the economic expertise to manage the issue and why not seek advice from leading mind out there. It is partly political as well I'm sure, but his intentions seem good.
@ Jason, that could be one solution but the last consumer stimuls' have not worked to well. Besides savings the bank is much more important because if one of the major goes down then the whole financial system could collapse due to their interdependence and complete loss of confidence.
@ Al - I think a combination of both is required. The government is the only one with the means to spend vast amounts of money right now, but ultimately it will be consumer spending that gets the economy growing again. Right now the government is spending to try and get business and consumers confident about their future and hence to make them spend.
Curt - see my above comments. It won't be such a bad thing to have the ERAB refershed with new people over time (most will have busy private lives anyway), just as long as the existing members contribute and can be leverage to get the best ideas.
November 28, 2008 3:34 AM
Andy,
Just kind of randomly stumbled onto your blog tonight, but I had some thoughts to share with you.
First, most economists that I read (http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/11/redefining-grownup-and-hack.html) are quite happy with Obama's picks. I think Volcker is a great pick for this era.
Second, I wanted to say that as a young person who is saving to invest (and has been learning about the market for the last year primarily through caps.fool.com), I'm not that enticed by any of your dividend-paying picks from your previous post. Looking at a 10-year chart of the five, D is the ONLY pick showing a capital gain, while the others would have lost me 30% or more over a decade! Ouch - the divys do not make up for this kind of capital depreciation, and the technicals would probably scare me out of most of them. Fundamentally, AEP and D are both way in debt, and at their current cash flows would take forever to pay it off. Now I don't know a ton about utilities (and I think they may be special cases), but still, huge debt does not bode well for the long-term, especially in this climate...
Dividend-paying stocks that I AM attracted to: COP, JNJ, and the indexes SPY/DIA for diversification.
Just my 2 cents.
-Neil
November 28, 2008 3:56 AM
Oop. Forgot to mention that I think BHP is a very enticing grower with a solid history of divs, debt management, etc.
November 28, 2008 11:50 AM
Neil, thanks for stopping by. I also think Obama's two choices to lead the ERAB are good, but I want to see who else is nominated and how the ERAB will be run.
In regards to the dividend stocks from my last post, all stocks like the DJ and S&P indexes are back to 1997/8 levels. So no surprise there. I am looking 5 years out, and do realize the stocks I picked will not have as much capital growth as other stocks. I picked them more on the company basis, sustainable dividend yield and cheap entry point. Utilities are essentially monopoly assests and their cash flow is pretty steady, which allows them to offest their debt required to fund major capital projects. D, for example is still able to sell its debt quite cheaply, which suggests that the market is not concerned about their defaulting.
COP, JNJ are good stocks. I just don't think they offer as good an entry point right now.
BHP is a great stock and on my radar. I have an Australian brokerage account as well, so have had BHP stock in my portfolio for the last 5 years....
You make some great points and look forward to your future comments.
January 19, 2009 11:20 AM
HI- Im new to your blog. Which brokerage do you have your Ausie brokerage account with? Do you live in the US? are you a US citizen? thnx
March 4, 2009 9:15 AM
I think forming the ERAB was a brilliant move on Obama's part. It shows that he is serious about solving the issues and not just politicizing them. too often our most important issues, Social security reform to name one, become politicized. So, a real long lasting solution never arises. hopefully, by forming this board Obama is opening the government to real solution to real problems.