Things should get better by 2010
A very cool graphic from the Economist looking at the GDP, Unemployment and Inflation forecasts for the US, Japan, Euro Zone and OECD. As leaders of the G20 countries gather in Washington, these factors and their forecasts will be key when decisions are made. 2009 looks like a global write-off from an economic perspective, but growth and jobs should return by 2010. Do you agree?
I think the OECD is painting an overly optimistic picture. My bet is it will take till 2011/2012 before the US and eventually the global economy is humming again.
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November 15, 2008 1:35 AM
no
November 15, 2008 5:58 AM
The graphic is cool.
An interesting question but I'd have to lean on the "it will take longer side"
Historically (as I have said many times) the economy is best prior to an election. If this or then was best then, oh crap. Also in these times improvements usually took at least a year to get started.
Also looking at historical information, rebounds from major issues like a recession, or even a depression show that it takes much more than a year to recover from fully.
It is my believe from my information in the tax world (no it isn't just one thing I can share with anyone more just a feeling from what I read from my news sources in the Tax world and what I read from a variety of sources) is that locally (USA) we might be able to see a turn around by your bet of 2011/2012 but on a global scale I'd bet a few more years.
November 15, 2008 5:12 PM
The US economy is headed into a deep recesssion, while the rest of the world will pull out after they dump the dollar.
November 17, 2008 12:02 AM
Im thinking we will see a recovery and another dip as we suffer the consequences of demographics as the baby boomers retire.
So a bounce back between 2010-2012 and another fall around 2018.
Cheers,
Jeremy