Comments on Saving to Inve$t: Oil's temporary respite

In order to save gas. I think we need to get good ...

2008-11-11T20:33:00.000-05:00

In order to save gas. I think we need to get good car with nice gas consumption. Or better get a hybrid or electric car.

@ Kyle. Looks your predictions are coming true in ...

2008-08-13T09:45:00.000-04:00

@ Kyle. Looks your predictions are coming true in term of the dollar. But like you said, we are only one big finanical company crash away from much more pain.

@ Curt, I think stocks are starting to look good - though still a traders market. Alternatively you could say that the recent weakness in commodities (due to dollar strength) could make it a good buying opportunity.

@ ME - I agree, though I think that Euopean weakness is real and should help our dollar stay around current levels. The speculators make money going up or going down so they will have made some money from the sharp rise in the dollar I am sure.

@ Anon - I hope you are right and people keep up their conservation habits. However I have seen high oil become less of an issue with people focusing now on how low oil can go. This may give a false sense of safety that low oil is here to stay...dangerous.

@ SB - You must have a diversified portfolio and this includes non-dollar assets. Still, I think it is not entirely prudent to avoid US companies as they still make up a large part of the marketplace. US markets I think will be great performers next year when things get better.

The dollar will not strengthen until Ben Bernanke ...

2008-08-09T23:34:00.000-04:00

The dollar will not strengthen until Ben Bernanke stops printing money for one.
And secondly not until he also raises interest rates, which will further hurt the economy, a la Paul Volcker in the late 70s and early 80s. However, this is what is need to increase foreign confidence in our currency.
I'm afraid any sound investment plan today has to be in non dollar dominated assets. It looks like inflation is going to be our boogie man for the forseeable future.
Sucks having fiat currency. The end result is always the same.

I agree with so much of your argument. However, I...

2008-08-08T19:25:00.000-04:00

I agree with so much of your argument. However, I don't think US people will increase gas use until it drops to $2.00--not that I think it will drop that low. All those other reasons will drive your argument just fine. Discretionary spending won't be able to increase much without a large drop in the price of oil.
Many are running on credit cards and running out of time. I fear a downward spiral of lower consumer spending and fewer service jobs.

oh, p.s. that wasn't speculation: there are record...

2008-08-08T17:25:00.000-04:00

oh, p.s. that wasn't speculation: there are records that US bonds sold 39.4% this past quarter/session compared to their usual 17%... an increase of about 50 billion dollars. Very unusual.

Also, the recent "run-up" by the U.S. dollar has b...

2008-08-08T17:24:00.000-04:00

Also, the recent "run-up" by the U.S. dollar has been deemed artificial by James Turk. He surmises that there's been an intervention by central banks buying dollars and using them to purchase US bonds in order to help prop up the dollar.

In other words, US fundamentals haven't changed; this company is still in the red and trying to disguise it! If it were a company, it would long be bankrupt by now.

You are correct. Oil will probably stay within 120...

2008-08-08T14:57:00.000-04:00

You are correct. Oil will probably stay within 120-150 this year, but next year it may in 150-180 and in 2010 could get to 200. The unfolding economic problems are hear to stay. With this understanding, this is a good time to sell stocks and buy commodities.

I more or less agree with your predictions. I'm s...

2008-08-08T14:05:00.000-04:00

I more or less agree with your predictions. I'm sure the recent strength in the dollar has had more than a little to do with the fall in oil prices, as well. IF we pull out of the housing crisis without any more large bailouts (a very big if) I think we'll see the dollar strengthen against other currencies, especially the Euro, and see lower oil prices as a result. All bets are off if another large financial institution collapses.